Friday, 20 November 2020

Mentorship matters


I will never forget how terrified I was when I was about to graduate from campus. I wondered what it was that I could offer the world and get paid, never mind that I had picked out my undergrad course on a picky ponky basis because there was no career guidance. The fright of having to face the uncertainty of my future without help was so bad that I had to get treated for ulcers. 

 

After graduation, I was fortunate to get a three-month internship position in one of Kenya's leading thinktanks, and where I eventually got to work for the next eleven years. The whole office had insanely intelligent people. Half the time, I wondered what they were going on about, primarily because they dealt with a subject that was entirely out of my depth - Economics. I had also come from a seriously flawed education system – one where I could ace it in class but one that rendered me dysfunctional when I stepped out to apply that knowledge in the workplace. I was inadequate in many ways, but my work environment provided the space to grow. The tonnes of literature I had to read through, the debates I listened to, the many places I visited, the people I interacted with, but most importantly, my colleagues who graciously handheld me out of my 'not knowing' without judgment – all gave me an opportunity to learn, unlearn and re-learn. Because of that, which was extended to me, I am a firm believer in providing that space for others.

 

As fate would have it, I came into contact with what would eventually become my life's calling – foresight. The organization had just completed a project on Kenya's possible futures in the coming decade, and I was in charge of the countrywide dissemination process in 300+ workshops. Traversing the country and facilitating community dialogues helped me understand my history and get in touch with my heritage. It also knocked out a lot of assumptions I had previously made during my sheltered school life. I got to experience the strategic power of foresight firsthand when three of the four extrapolations panned out in seven years - even if the project's intention was not to predict the future. The fact that we had an opportunity to proactively design policy decisions beforehand was revolutionary. From this experience, foresight became that thing that had to be transmitted to others – especially in a continent that needs to get its act together on many levels, operates largely from two-dimensional time perspectives, and has the fewest number of futurists. 

 

Through LongView Futures Foundation, we are now running Africa foresight Lab, which fosters foresight literacy among young Africans. The 10-week action learning training program is offered three times a year. It is designed to accommodate a maximum of 30 young people from 30 countries, learning for three hours every week for three months to understand the basics of futures thinking. This first cohort is very special because we have designed foresight projects together in the past. They came on board to deepen their knowledge on the subject and help test the tools and methodologies, and ensure that they are fit for purpose in the African context. The team comprises 17 individuals from 12 countries – who are now on week 7 of learning. They are in the process of designing futures perspectives on the areas that are of most concern to them. We hope to share the outcome of that process at a later stage. We hope that they will use the knowledge gathered to transform their spheres of influence because collectively, we will influence Africa's futures one cohort at a time.




Dr. Katindi Sivi

Friday, 13 November 2020

Time for organizations to hit the reset button: Using scenarios to stress test your strategic plans

A lot of organizations have been trying to pick up from where they left off before the COVID-19 lockdown. This means most of them want to continue with business as usual with the hope that the effects of COVID-19 are a passing cloud and that somehow, things will get better. Most do not fully acknowledge that something has fundamentally shifted. Whatever is going on has lasting future implications on how organizations are structured, how they deliver goods and services, as well as their relationships with their employees, customers, and other organizations or sectors in general. The reason why it is vital to revisit your strategic plan is that it is based on certain assumptions about the future, and these assumptions need to be reconsidered with the hindsight of the new realities. 

 

The banking and the insurance sectors have been forerunners in coming up with a process of creating buffers that prevent their systems from collapsing if there are extreme shocks that adversely affect their operations like financial crushes. Through robust risk analyses, they can plan for uncertainties brought about by complex conditions. From the point of view of long-term resilience and sustainability, organizations also need to guard against the adversities of unforeseen circumstances in the future. Stress testing is deployed by futurists to explore the impacts organizations would face or the stresses the systems in the organizations would go through if certain scenarios were to occur. The idea is to test the fortitude of the strategic plan and, if necessary, to develop organizational work plans or amend the strategic plan so that it becomes more robust and/or flexible to future uncertainties and more inclusive of the emerging concerns.

 

In a stress testing process, we choose relevant and viable sets of scenarios and conduct a SWOT analysis of the strategic plan's performance in each scenario. This process brings out how various components of the plan (like the strategic goals or program strategies) would perform under various circumstances or eventualities while surfacing the trends with the highest future impact on the organization. These issues are then mapped out in what we call a heat map – which is a color-coded matrix that indicates the performance of the different components of the plan against the various stress factors identified in each scenario. The color code also shows the impact of the stress on the organization or on the organizational system. Abysmal performance means a very high impact of the stress and that the particular components of the plan are not viable or feasible in the future hence a red color code; marginal performance means the medium impact of the stress and that the components of the plan are somehow viable or feasible, but they need strategic enhancement hence an orange color code; while good performance means that there is no negative impact of the stress and that the components of the plan are feasible or viable hence a green color code. Apart from the color-coding aspect in the heat map, the reason why an impact and the performance of the plan's component warrants a particular color code should be indicated as it helps surface the assumptions made and enhances participants' clarity on the issues.

 

At the analysis stage, organizational members have an opportunity to zoom in on the problem areas with the highest potential impact on the organization and identify strategic interventions that would help them to be more prepared and agile in their responses. The heat map also shows certain patterns e.g., strengths in the program side of things and weaknesses in the institutional side of things – and such patterns clearly show the areas that need more work. Ultimately, a stress test should generate both internal interventions that strengthen the institutions' response to external eventualities but also it can help identify external strategies such as lobbying for certain laws or collaborating with certain partners to proactively work towards creating futures that help avert the scenarios that would cause the highest levels of impact on their organizations.

 



 

 

 

LongView Consult was privileged in October 2020 to work with a global organization - Publish What You Pay - on such a project, and this is what the client said about the process. 

 

"You have taken us on our first journey of futures thinking at PWYP, and I hope this is the beginning of a new approach in our work. I also wanted to say that I have received really good feedback….."

Elisa Peter, Executive director 

Publish What You Pay

 

 

 

 

 






Dr. Katindi Sivi

Afri-Futurist, founder and Lead consultant @ LongView Consult

www.longviewconsult.com