The Constitution of Kenya, 2010 created
a devolved system of government. The 47 county governments are responsible for
socio-economic development partly through resources allocated from the National
Government. A Commission for Revenue Allocation (CRA) was set up to come up
with a formula of how these resources would be allocated. The first formula
proposed allocations in the following manner: 60 per cent according to the
population size; 12 per cent according to poverty levels; six per cent
according to land size; and two per cent according to fiscal responsibility.
Society for International development
hosted an experts forum to interrogate this formula and determine if it would
enable counties to achieve equitable development especially in addressing the
needs of marginalized groups / regions as stipulated in clause 201; as well as
allocate the resources according to the developmental needs of counties and
factor in the economic disparities within and among counties, the need for
affirmative action and economic optimization of each county as stipulated in
clause 203.
A
summary of the proceedings of that meeting are captured in the article below
Population
experts want the formula for sharing county funds changed. The experts said the
formula which the Commission on Revenue Allocation (CRA) should use must be
based on poverty, rather than population.
Speaking
in Nairobi at a workshop organized by the Society for International Development
(SID), the experts, including University of Nairobi population scientist Dr
Alfred Agwanda, said a formula based on population will perpetuate poverty in
less endowed counties. “The lower end will not develop in tandem with the high
end like Nairobi,” Dr Agwanda said.
He
said some counties do not have an inch of tarmac road and basing the formula on
birth rate would not bring equality, which the Constitution stipulates.
SID
programmes coordinator Katindi Sivi-Njonjo said the 60 per cent allocated
according to population should be reduced to 40 per cent and the difference
redistributed to poorer end counties. “The formula should be pro-poor and funds
for poverty increased from 12 per cent to at least 25 per cent,” she said.
Another
expert, Dr Charles Karisa, said over-emphasis on the size of a county was
wrong.“Size was over-emphasized. Area as a factor in allocating resources
cannot stand alone. Inequality is the key to growth and poverty reduction,” Dr
Karisa said.
But
CRA director of legal affairs Sheila Ayieka said the formula was only a
proposal that needed approval by Parliament. Last week, CRA chairman Micah
Cheserem said money would be allocated to the 47 counties based on population (60
per cent), poverty levels (12 per cent), size (six per cent), and fiscal
responsibility (two per cent).
Article first featured on the Foresight for Develpment website on Saturday, 02 February 2013 17:21
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The Future of Youth
Following a disputed election in 2007, Kenya experienced spontaneous violence in reaction to the election results mainly in opposition areas, organized attacks mainly in Rift Valley Province against certain ethnic groups that supported the incumbent, organised retaliatory attacks as well as opportunistic sexual and gender based violence. Findings of the Commission of Inquiry into the Post-Election Violence enumerated the growing population of poor, unemployed youth, educated and uneducated, who agree to join militias and organized gangs as part of the major root causes of the conflict. According to a youth advocacy organization, Youth Agenda, young were responsible for 7.32% of all incidents of pre-planned violence. 54.88% of those who executed the violence were youth.
It is this phenomenon and the fact that youth bulges (which are large youth cohorts relative to the adult population) are widely becoming recognized as a considerable resource for national development but also as a significant source of challenges that led Ms. Katindi, then working at the Institute of Economic Affairs-Kenya, to begin investigating youth trends in Kenya and their future implication.
This work brings out glaring concerns beyond education and unemployment - the most worrying trend being the risky sexual patterns, abuse of alcohol and drugs. However, general health and reproductive health challenges of young people do not feature in government’s top policy and budget priorities.
A further investigation of the issue in the region led to the following conclusions about the future.
Demographically, nearly all of Sub-Saharan Africa has a child rich population, majority of who are below the age of 15. Two thirds or more are young people under the age of 30, and only three to six percent of the population is above age 60. However, in light of the widespread reductions in fertility and mortality rates, women are giving birth later, to fewer children and spacing them more. As a result, there are changes occurring that will alter the current population structure. In the next two decades, it is anticipated that the 0-14 age cohort will shrink while the 15-29 age cohort will bulge.
This shift presents various opportunities. In countries where most youth and young adults (defined here as those aged 15 to 29 years) have been well educated and where their energy and ingenuity are sought by employers, such a large proportion of young people is seen as an asset. In economies where their numbers, productivity, savings and taxes support smaller subpopulations of children and elderly, they provide a “demographic dividend” to economic growth. However, these large youth populations if relatively well educated but unemployed become a social challenge and a political hazard. Young men in particular are the main perpetrators of conflict as they are frustrated in their search for status and livelihood.
First, a large youthful population will inevitably increase the regional population due to the fact that 15 to 29 year old women are at the peak of their reproductive age. In Kenya, this group is currently responsible for 60% of the 1.5 million Kenyans born every year. Due to high teenage pregnancies, one out of every four children born was not planned for (36% of girls are mothers by age 19) and therefore the reproductive decisions that young people makes will determine their lifetime fertility rates and, subsequently, rate of population growth in the region. It is projected that the region’s population will grow from 139 million to 237 million by 2030. 82 million will reside in Tanzania, 66 million in Kenya, 60 million in Uganda, 18 million in Rwanda and 11 million in Burundi.
Second, this population increase will inevitably increase the population density and without proper planning will result into overcrowding. A high population will also increase the demand for natural resources such as water and land thus aggravating food insecurity and increasing resource conflicts in the region. It also places a bigger demand on social amenities such as education, health care and sanitation infrastructure.
Third, most migrants go to cities as young adults to look for employment and other opportunities. A bulging youth will increase the rate of rural to urban migration in the region. If the development transformation necessary to support urban growth is not occurring at the same speed as the migration rate, the region will witness a faster increase of informal settlements and the challenges that come with slum dwellings.
Fourth, out of the current unemployed working age population, about 70% are under age 30. Female unemployment rate is much higher than that of their male counterparts in the region while unemployment among urban youths is much higher than that of their rural counterparts. Continued exclusion of youth from a productive role in the economy will inevitably exacerbate crime, drug abuse, vandalism and escalate the vicious cycle of poverty if no holistic approach is initiated to alter the situation. With a global financial crisis that only serves to exacerbate this already grim reality, the challenge for the region is to adequately address the increasing demand for employment in an environment where the number of youth joining the job market is faster than the jobs being created.
Fifth, researches conducted on population structures point to the fact that 80% of civil conflicts occurred in countries where 60% of the population or more were under the age of thirty. In another study, demographers argued that countries with more than 40 percent of young adults (aged 15 to 29 years) in the population of adults (aged 15 and older) were typically in the early or middle phases of the demographic transition. These countries are 2.3 times likely to experience an outbreak of civil conflict than countries with smaller proportions. East Africa’s youth are currently about 51.63% of the total adult population. The risk of civil conflict is further aggravated when these large youth cohorts are relatively well educated but unemployed in areas that generally have low levels of development.
Primary Gross Enrolment Rates in the region are currently at 123.6% while secondary schools Gross Enrolment Rates are at 29.6%. This figure though indicative of low transition rates from primary to secondary schools, also shows the mass production of young men and women who have acquired only minimal skills along the way and therefore cannot meaningfully participate in a work environment that requires high skilled individuals and is globalizing.
Sixth, studies also show that 90% of countries with very young population structures had autocratic or weakly democratic governments at the end of the 20th century. As a result, their young people tend to perpetuate cycles of political instability, ethnic wars, revolutions, and anti-regime activities. Low political will and inadequate resources to effectively integrate them into meaningfully participate in decision making also makes them feel excluded thus exhibiting open aggression and conflict through self organization or by being exploited and manipulated mostly by politicians.
Seventh, many of the countries with young and youthful populations also have among the world’s weakest economies. They also have political and institutional constraints that discourage economic activities and private investments needed to generate jobs. Lack of jobs among young people escalates dependency. According to research these countries experienced an average annual economic growth rate of 3.6 percent. This growth can increase if young people are economically empowered to allow greater personal savings and investments. However, continued denial of economic opportunities to them will lead to a shrinking per capita income. Unemployment eventually leads to frustrations that trigger political instability, making it even more difficult for poor countries with large youth populations to generate economic growth and encourage the foreign and domestic investment needed to generate new jobs.
United Nations forecasts that the plight of young people is likely to be one of the main challenges of the century. Owing to the fact that Sub-Saharan Africa will experience a bulging youth population in the next two decades, understanding the region’s population growth, structure and distribution will provide incites that help minimize the challenges of a growing youth population and maximize on the opportunities that youth bulges present.
Katindi Sivi Njonjo, a futurist with joy and passion for foresight
I first met Katindi for lunch in 2010 on a visit from California. I had just left my job at Institute for the Future and was preparing to go to graduate school in New York. I was so excited to meet her, to get some first-hand knowledge of foresight in Kenya. At the time I was a bit nervous; what should I expect? To my delight, Katindi was forever laughing and humble about all that she has achieved. I quickly knew that come 2011, when I have my summer break, I must find a way to return to Kenya and work with Katindi. And so I did.
I have discovered the more I learn about all the amazing work she has done in Kenya, the more humble she becomes. It is easy to see the joy and passion she finds in her work, and become enamored with the process through her eyes. I am happy to have had to opportunity to interview Katindi for Foresight for Development.
Katindi's motto, if she hasn’t already made one, might be that effective scenarios need souls, and they find them through conviction in the process.
Inspired and inspiring
Having worked in research and policy for some time, Katindi finds her inspiration to continue working to change the way Kenyans see their world in the shortcomings of her country’s policies. "I find that the Kenyan government is mostly caught up in romanticizing about the past and over-analyzing the present making us completely unprepared for any eventualities even the most obvious. The programmes and processes we institute are therefore reactive, and we have been very poor in putting together winning strategies that result into proactive solutions." This is where scenario building and futures thinking comes in.
Describing her work as a futurist is always tricky, but Katindi uses "methods such as vision thinking, strategic planning and scenarios building to guide research, discuss strategic policy issues and possible futures we may have to face whether we like it or not."
When asked to elaborate a bit more on what these terms mean Katindi tells us that "visions thinking is about having a mental picture of where you want to go within a certain period of time. We, for example, used this method to challenge the Kenyan government about the inefficiencies of five-year term plans through a process we called 'Vision 2027', which we believe influenced the crafting of the current country strategy 'Vision 2030'.
"Strategic planning, a management tool, was adopted for community development. We help constituencies chat out their development plan, map out all their resources and identify benchmarks with which to evaluate their progress. This process is promoting citizen participation and accountability of public funds."
And further, "scenarios building is a systematic way of thinking about possible futures that could happen looking at how different variables interact. The idea is to spur strategic debate on complex issues or get direction in very uncertain times. We have used this methodology to discuss the possible future of Kenya after the retirement of a dictator, and are currently discussing the possible future for Kenya given the looming youth bulge."
Katindi continues: "In most cases, I actually combine all three methodologies when facilitating, depending on the context so as to benefit from the strengths of the three methodologies."
"A long way to go with futures thinking"
Africa, as a whole, still has a long way to go with futures thinking, in particular when it comes to adopting scenarios building.
"In my view, visioning is the most common among African governments, and strategic planning is very popular with the private sector. However, not many have embraced scenarios building as a strategic way of thinking about the complex issues that African governments have to contend with. I must say though that there is scenarios work going on in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda."
Katindi says that seeds of change are in place, but a critical mass is still lacking. Which is a shame because, "the use of foresight methodologies — particularly scenarios building — would help deepen research and inform proactive policies and legislation, thereby building better solutions to complex problems. African governments would also be more prepared to deal with eventualities, thus reducing the number of catastrophes. I know it would also lead to better use of resources."
More than a job
As is the case with many futurists, futures thinking chose Katindi; not the other way around.
"After University, I got an internship at the Institute of Economic Affairs to work under a scenarios project. They eventually took me on board as a full time staff member." Katindi expands: "I am glad I found myself there because I had no idea what I wanted to pursue for a career. Through the scenarios dissemination experience, I saw the credibility of futures thinking and how Kenya can confront some of its unprecedented challenges using these methodologies."
Of her qualifications, Katindi explains that she "later did some formal training at Oxford’s Said Business School. Today I head the futures programme in the organization, and I am leading a project on possible futures Kenya might face as a result of the looming youth bulge. Foresight is no longer a job - it is a calling!"
While in her early days at IEA, Katindi was guided by and inspired by three particular people: Betty Maina, former CEO of Institute of Economic Affairs who started the scenarios work in Kenya; Barbara Heinzen, who was an independent consultant for all the East African scenarios projects; and Arthur Muliro who convened the East African scenarios processes and currently works for Society of International Development. "They took risks with me and provided numerous learning opportunities," she says.
A turning point involving revolutionary methods
The experience of disseminating Kenya’s first scenarios countrywide pushed Katindi into making what has been, up to now, an eleven year career. "The conversation the process elicited convinced me that this was worth pursuing for a career. My turning point though was when three of the four stories played out accurately, seven years later. I was convinced that foresight methodologies were very revolutionary methods of discussing possible futures and inventive policy proposals." Looking ahead, Katindi explains that she "would really like to carry out extensive research and advocate for revolutionary social policies through futures methodologies in order to provide practical and creative solutions to the poor and marginalized."
For others who might want to get into the futures field within Africa, Katindi has this to say: "Western countries can afford to have foresight conversations for intellectual purposes, since most of their populations have reached the self-actualization stage of life. Africa is still dealing with very basic needs. African futurists will, therefore, have to contextualize foresight methodologies and use them to provide pragmatic solutions. Foresight work is fairly new in Africa, particularly in rural areas. There are many unexplored areas, and this provides enormous opportunities. However, foresight practitioners here will have to be patient in order to break through. This is because culture and religion may hinder effective futures thinking and practice. A classic example is a youth group I facilitated in Northern Kenya in April 2011, who said they don’t deliberately plan for their family sizes because children are a gift from God. The quality of their future is dependent on God’s will (inshallah) and God’s provision. A discussion on demographic control and its future implications, therefore, became a very difficult subject to address." Such challenges Katindi meets head on.
When asked about challenges facing African foresight, Katindi says this: "For those pursuing futures studies, it is good to have the formal knowledge of the discipline. However, foresight knowledge is acquired more from practice. Futures knowledge is imbued more by doing than from theory."
And Katindi should know. She travelled across the country, talking about Kenya’s scenarios in over 200 meetings, when she was fresh out of the university. She has a story of spending three days, in the back of a truck on a tiny bench to Moyale, in order to share the scenarios with that region. "I am just happy to have gone through the discovery process which is part of being a futurist. It is what makes you believe in the process and get the much needed conviction because if you conduct scenarios without conviction, you create empty stories, stories without a soul."
Beyond the religious aspect, then, what challenges does an African futurist face working within their continent?
According to Katindi, "Foresight methodologies, in my view, can be too abstract. In Kenya, the scenarios we first produced were largely dismissed until the post-election conflict in 2008, when people realized that three of the four scenarios had played out quite accurately. This precision made people begin to have confidence in the methodology. More private sector organizations are demanding for this type of analysis in their planning. The public sector is still slow, though it acknowledges that scenario conversations are a credible way of preparing for eventualities. I think the qualitative nature of scenarios does not resonate well with the quantitative orientation of government economists. Quantitative data collected though various modeling techniques would help back up the extrapolations made in scenarios."
Challenges for African foresight
"The other big challenge", says Katindi, "is that people expect foresight methodologies to be predictions, and they are not willing to engage with scenarios as possibilities."
For those who might want to get into the futures field within Africa, Katindi suggests a handful of foundational pieces for people just getting interested in the field and in need of some technical background. These publications are what "any futurist should be aware of", she explains:
The futurist at work
When asked what her office looks like, Katindi tells us we’ll see this: "Books and so many journal articles on youth and vigilantism. These are the effects of rigorous research."
And the place she does her best thinking? "If I could relocate, it would be Rockefeller’s Bellagio Center in Italy, or anywhere in Cape Town, South Africa. But in reality I think best in the shower. I sometimes get such deep brain waves at night but I never get up to write them down, so I will never remember the next morning what it was all about!"
Although others describe Katindi as "meticulous in [her] work" she tends to think she is "easy going." Personally I think she’s somehow mastered both skills!
About the author of this article Tessa Finlev is a research affiliate with Institute for the Future. She is also pursuing her masters degree in International Political Economy and Development from Fordham University in New York. Her current work is focusing on designing a futures thinking process to contribute to the conflict resolution and peace-building field. Tessa will be joining FFD in Pretoria in July to gain a broader perspective on how futures thinking and peace-building can work together. She will be seeking out interviews from people in the field of conflict resolution and futures thinking, writing features for the site on foresight for peace, and testing the platform as a collaboration site. For more information about her research see here.
'The Youth Fact Book: InfinitePossibility or Definite Disaster', a book I authored in 2010, has been recognized as an authoritative one stop shop of youth facts, figures and analysis with regard to the state of Kenya's youth population. it was featured extensively in the article below.
Increased
spending on training is yet to match the rate of job creation in the country, a
trend that analysts warn could have grave consequences because young people
with skills are likely to remain unemployed.
Private
companies have lately been putting billion of shillings of their social
responsibility budgets to support education through scholarships and buying of
learning materials and equipment, thereby giving the youth access to education.
On
its part, the government has introduced free primary and subsidised secondary
education, raising the budgetary allocation to the Education Ministry to 73.8
per cent of the Sh236.6 billion spent on social sector in the last financial
year.
"This
heavy investment supply side of the labour market is likely to go to waste if
not accompanied by detailed curriculum revision to allow the youth to create
their own jobs and export surplus to other economies," said Ms Katindi
Sivi Njonjo, a policy analyst at the Institute of Economic Affairs.
The
Kenya housing and population census data released late last year indicated that
78.3 per cent of Kenya's 38.6 million people (30.2million) are aged below 35
years of age - the same category that has been hit most by unemployment.
Ms
Njonjo attributes youth unemployment to the high population growth rate of 2.8
per cent - which is above the global average of 2.1 per cent - that has
outpaced the rate at which the national wealth has been growing annually.
In
the past few years, the government has come up with entrepreneurship programmes
such as the Youth Enterprise Development Fund and Kazi Kwa Vijana programmes
but the number of unemployed youth continues to grow as thousands of young
people graduate from learning institutions every year.
"Some
of these programmes have not met expectation because they are conceived with a
mindset that views the youth as menial labourers at a time when focus has
shifted to creating knowledge economies," said Ms Njonjo.
Mr
David Nalo, permanent secretary at the East African Community Ministry, said
the government was targeting the ongoing rebuilding of the economy in Rwanda
and Burundi to provide some form of employment to Kenya's skilled and jobless
youth.
The
ministry plans to set up one-stop youth resource centres across the country to
provide information on employment and entrepreneurship opportunities arising
under each of the four pillars of regional economic integration - custom union,
common market, monetary union and political integration.
"The
youth unemployment in this country is a time bomb that we have to defuse using
every available opportunity and resources," said Mr Nalo, adding that the
youth resource centres will raise the number of youths being absorbed in
regional projects.
The
move comes hot on the heels of last month's signing of the mutual recognition
agreement in the region that now allows professional and academic bodies in the
region to recognize qualifications and standards of all member states.
This
means a professional or academic certificate issued in any of the member states
will be recognized in all the five member states, easing the job hunt across
borders.
At
the regional level, Mr Nalo said, partner states have agreed to establish five
centres of excellence in each of the states to develop and strengthen technical
innovations by the youth in the region, in a move aimed at creating a
technological competitive edge for the region.
But
even as concern rises over the low growth of the demand side of the labour
market, the education ministry has announced its plan to establish 15 new
public university colleges across the country in the coming months.
This
move is expected to significantly increase the number of graduate job seekers
into the market.
The
recent campaign by the government seeking to allow middle-level public
institutions to offer degree programmes has already increased enrolment in
local universities to 200,000 students by end of 2010.
"We
are keen to ensure that the country's higher education is not only relevant to
local development needs but also prepares students to compete effectively in
the global knowledge-based economy." President Kibaki said last week when
he granted a charter to the Kericho-based Kenya Highlands Evangelical
University.
Ms
Eldah Onsomu, acting head of social sector division at Kenya Institute for
Public Policy and Research Analysis (Kippra) says just about 24 per cent of
Kenya's youth are in formal employment. She maintains that there is a need for
channels and preparation for youth to employ themselves.
"There
is genuine need to focus on creation of quality jobs but since the formal
sector is not expanding as fast, the government also needs to empower the youth
to create wealth in the informal sector," said Ms Onsomu.
The
officials are visiting schools, colleges and universities where they hope to
convince students who fail to get further education opportunities in Kenya to
seek even cheaper higher education in Tanzania and Uganda.
This
is in the first phase of an awareness drive initiated by the ministry.
Lobbyists
have however being pushing for radical pro-youth policies to address
unemployment in the country.
"The
government needs to adopt youth-friendly economic policies such as ensuring
each person holds one job, and is strictly required to retire at age 55, while
reserving 30 per cent of government procurement for youthful entrepreneurs, and
investing more national resources in sports, music and the arts," argues
George Nyongesa, national convener of the Youth Forum.
'The Youth Fact Book: InfinitePossibility or Definite Disaster', a book I authored in 2010, has been
recognized as an authoritative one stop shop of youth facts, figures and
analysis with regard to the state of Kenya's youth population. It was featured
extensively in the article below.
By KWAMCHETSI MAKOKHA (kwamchetsi@formandcontent.com)
Burn
the food, refuse to have sex and neglect the children — these are some of the
surest ways for a Kenyan woman to get a beating from her husband.
Should these acts of
provocation not yield results, she can also argue with her husband or go out
without informing him, with sure-fire consequences.
As the world began
marking 16 Days of Activism on Violence against Women this week, Katindi Sivi
Njonjo of the Institute of Economic Affairs released her Youth Fact Book:
Infinite Possibility or Definite Disaster?
Secret documents
Culling data from recent
research efforts published in various credible sources, Ms Njonjo’s fact book
turns secret government documents into a public resource.
For example, the data
from the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, 2009, reveals that many young
women between the ages of 15 and 34 believe that burning food, refusing to have
sex, getting into an argument with the man, going out without asking the man’s
permission and neglecting the children should attract a beating from the
husband.
Up to 40 per cent of
young women in this age bracket believe that the husband would be right to beat
them if they neglect their children.
Conversely, 31 per cent
of the men in this age group agree that neglecting children should attract a
beating for the wife.
Where 30.2 per cent of
the women surveyed believe that a wife should be beaten if she goes out without
telling her man, only 24 per cent of men believe it is right to raise your hand
against the spouse in such circumstances.
Refusing to have sex with
the man should attract a beating for wives, according to 21 per cent of the
women surveyed while 13.5 per cent of the men believe that withholding conjugal
rights should be a ticket to corporal contact.
Arguing with the man
should provoke a beating, according to 24 per cent of the men surveyed against
30 per cent of the women.
Women take burning food
more seriously than men, with 13 per cent expecting it to lead to a beating
against 8 per cent among men.
Not all women in Kenya
have an equal chance of getting a beating from their husbands, however.
Education and wealth reduce the expectation of wife beating in men and women.
Women who hold a salaried
job are less likely to support wife beating than those who are unemployed or
work in underpaid enterprises.
Urban men and women are
less likely to advocate wife beating than their rural counterparts. Nairobi has
the lowest number of women expecting to be beaten, at just 10 per cent.
There is, apparently, also
a shortage of men willing to beat their wives in Nairobi, and those who look
upon it as a fitting cultural practice believe it should only apply when
children are neglected with 20 per cent support among women and 25 per cent
among men.
Even so, women in Nairobi
think it is not a big deal to burn food, with just 2.7 per cent thinking bad
cooking should result in a beating against 5.5 per cent of the men.
Western Province is the
headquarters of wife beating, where 40 per cent women expect to be beaten.
There is a deficit of wife beaters there, though, with just 20.6 per cent for
the men ready and willing to beat their wives.
In Rift Valley Province,
36 per cent of the women expect a hiding from the hubby, and the men are not
unwilling, at 22 per cent.
In these two regions, the
egregious offences in ranking order are neglecting children, arguing, going out
without informing the man, refusing to have sex and burning food. In Central
Province, interest in wife beating is middling, with expectations among women
at 18 per cent and 20 per cent among men, but both genders agree that
neglecting children is a grave offence.
Those women who
are married or live with a man, have separated or divorced are likely to
support wife beating rather than those who have not attempted these blissful
unions.
As women have
more children, so too do their chances of getting beaten. Women who are
divorced, widowed or separated, those who have married more than once or even
been married for over 10 years are soft targets for batterers.
The actual
numbers on abused women bear out the social attitudes. Abuse figures are
highest in Nyanza Province at 37 per cent, followed by Western Province at 32
per cent, Rift Valley 28 per cent, Central 26 per cent, Coast 25 per cent and
Eastern 23 per cent.
Nairobi and North
Eastern provinces have the lowest incidences of abuse at 18 per cent.
What do women do?
Perhaps have more sex, burn less food, argue less with men, put a GPRS tracker
on your left foot so hubby knows where you are, and do not — ever — neglect the
children.
'The Youth Fact Book: Infinite Possibility or Definite Disaster', a book I authored in 2010, has been
recognized as an authoritative one stop shop of youth facts, figures and
analysis with regard to the state of Kenya's youth population. It was featured
extensively in the article below. By MWAURA KIMANI (email the author onpmkimani@ke.nationmedia.com)
The
numbers
32.2%overall percentage
of workers on ‘Contract’ or ‘casual’ basis in Kenya
27m number of Kenyans below the age
of 30
Sh 6.6bn money allocated to ‘Kazi kwa
vijana’ initiative in current financial year
Social progress has stalled for millions
of youthful workers as employers revert to casuals to cut costs and protect
profits
of Kenyan youths joined the ranks of the working poor in the
past five years as employers turned to temporary or contractual jobs to cut costs
– stalling the social progress that usually comes with employment.
Temporary employment, which comes
without key benefits such as pension, health insurance or access to loan
facilities, has left the majority of young people either underemployed or underpaid
locking them up in the bottom quarter of the social pyramid, according to the
Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), a Nairobi-based think tank.
Kenya has had one the most flexible
labour markets in Africa since the country embarked on economic liberalization
in the early 1990s. Market data, however, shows that deregulation deepened in
the past five years resulting in a steep rise in the number of part-time,
contract, and out-sourced workers with serious ramifications on the social
front.
Official statistics show that casual
employment grew by 13 per cent last year compared to a five per cent growth in
2007, reflecting increasing preference for casuals. Regular employment dipped
2.9 per cent during the same period.
This trend has seen the proportion
of casual workers in the formal sector of the economy increase gradually from
17.9 per cent in 2000 to 32.2 per cent last year.
“Hiring casuals contrasts sharply
with the country’s desire to reduce poverty and enhance social protection,”
said Katindi Sivi, a programme officer at IEA.
Inuka Kenya Trust, a civil society organization
that co-authored the labour market report with IEA, says social stagnation in
employment combined with the army of the unemployed have become the biggest
threat to Kenya’s long term stability requiring immediate action.
“We are sitting on a time bomb as
more youths continue to be out there without jobs while those who are employed
earn peanuts with little personal advancement,” said John Githongo, the chief
executive of Inuka Kenya Trust. “The danger is that unemployment or
underemployment is extending the burden of dependency on parents, diminishing
self-esteem fuelling frustrations and making crime an attractive option,” said
Mr Githongo.
Besides, underemployed or poorly
paid employees often become incapable of starting families, providing their
children with good healthcare or educating their off-springs – stalling social
progress in the long term.
IEA says Kenya’s dependency ratio
has increased in the recent past as more young adults – many of them in poorly
paying jobs – continue to rely on their parents for financial support.
Kenya’s rate of creating formal
sector jobs has continued to trail the number of young people entering the
labour market and analysts say that trend will continue even if economy grew at
the rate of more than 10 per cent annually.
The cascading of large numbers of young people to low-paying
informal sector jobs is seen as
one reason why Kenya’s income
disparity has been widening, a risk to social stability that is one of the key
pillars of Vision 2030.
Census results released in September
showed that 2.2 million Kenyans, the majority of them youths are unemployed and
are actively seeking jobs in an economy where growth slowed down to 1.6 and 2.6
per cent in 2008 and 2009, respectively.
The economy generated only 445,000
jobs in 2009 less than the 2008 figure of 475,000 and 486,000 in 2007.
Employers said the prevailing regulatory and business climate that is characterized
by high cost of investment and bureaucracy has made permanent employment
untenable, at least in the medium term.
“We recognize that youth unemployment is a crisis but employers
are just responding to the realities of the labour market,” said Betty Maina,
the chief executive at the Kenya Association of Manufacturers.
“Kenya’s new labour laws have raised
labour costs by at least 20 per cent since coming into force two years ago,
meaning employers have to look for ways of reducing the overheads,” she said.
The regulations, which came into force last year to protect casual workers from
exploitation, however, had the result of making the hiring of such employees
expensive. Many employers responded to the regulations with deep lay-offs of
temporary workers aiming to escape the extra cost. Hired on short-term
contracts, most casual workers labour for long hours under poor working
conditions and low wages, often without maternity, sick leave, housing and
medical allowances.
More recently, employees have been
denied the right to join trade unions and access to basic services like water
while some are victims of reported sexual harassment at the workplace.
As Kenya’s economy recovers, the realization
of Vision 2030 will largely depend on how fast the economy creates jobs for its
millions of unemployed youth.“Population growth of Kenya’s magnitude comes at a
high cost to a developing country in terms of provision of services and demands
higher economic growth manage or forces the government to stop providing some
social programmes,” said Prof Joseph Kieyah, the head of private sector
development division at Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and
Analysis.
The IEA’s findings also imply that
youth unemployment and biting poverty are likely to escalate in the next five
years. Youth unemployment remains one of Kenya’s top policy headaches to which
the government has responded with successive stop-gap measures such as
revolving funds and the Kazi Kwa Vijana initiative to help stem a looming
social upheaval.
These efforts have however come
under intense criticism over the methods of execution and their overall impact
on poverty.
The latest findings are expected to
stoke the old debate as to whether the Vision 2030, which is grounded on a high
economic growth - at 10 per cent - will have any impact on Kenya’s proverbial
mountain of poverty that has left more than half of the population in the
bottom income band.
“If we do not sort out the bulging
youth problem now, it is highly likely we will not achieve Vision 2030
targets,” said Dr Collins Opiyo, the Director of Population and Social
Statistics at the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. “The level of dependency
is rising as there is still the elderly to think about,” he said.
Revelations of how the youths are
being sidelined in the job market come just days after the National Social and
Economic Council (NESC) - a key State organ that is responsible for Kenya’s
economic policy - warned the 10 per cent annual rate of economic growth is not
enough to lift the estimated 60 per cent of the population from poverty – even
if that level was sustained for the next two decades.
Kenya aims to grow her economy by at
least 10 per cent annually by 2012, a medium-term target it hopes will create
more jobs, raise household earnings and close the gap between the rich and the
poor.
East Africa’s largest economy has
come under increasing pressure to find a policy mix that will accelerate
growth, stem rising cost of living, spur job creation and put more money in the
pockets of households by supporting key sectors.
'The Youth Fact
Book: Infinite Possibility or Definite Disaster?' , a book I authored in
2010, has been recognized as an authoritative one stop shop of youth facts,
figures and analysis with regard to the state of Kenya's youth population. It
was featured extensively in the article below.
The
young and the restless: In 2009, more than half of the inmates
at the Industrial Area Remand Prison came from single-parent homes, according
to a new report. Most were unemployed, had experimented with drugs and felt
neglected by both the society and the state. Would they have turned out better
had they received undivided attention?
The young man next door is most likely
unemployed or in casual engagement, is religious but never makes offerings at
his place of worship, may be into crime, alcohol or drugs, is almost certainly
a registered voter, and is likely to die before he clocks 60 years.
And all this, according to a recently
released profile of the Kenyan youth, can be blamed on the adults — especially
the absent, abusive, or laid-back father —and a society that promised them a
future leadership but failed to provide a safe landing.
Generation Y has been betrayed by
fathers, employers, and even a post-Moi government that came to power on the
promise of creating quality jobs for the youth
The profile, titled Youth Fact Book,
Infinite Possibility or Definite Disaster and compiled by the Institute of
Economic Affairs, says that, to beat benefits won by trade unions, employers,
including the government, have resorted to casual employment.
“Most employers in Kenya, including
those in the public sector, have resorted to the increasing use of casual,
temporary, part-time, and contract workers to ostensibly reduce labour costs
and exert greater levels of control over workers,” says the profile.
This is a major disappointment for
young Kenyans, considering, as the survey has found, that half of them have job
opportunities as their top priority, many times above their health or even the
risk of death. (Health ranked below education, wealth, and income distribution
or even political participation).
Youths, thus pushed into a corner, are
overstaying their welcome in the family home, which undermines confidence and,
in some instances, pushes them to crime.
Today, violent crime witnesses are most
likely to tell of the involvement of “young, armed males”, and more than half
of the crime in the country in being committed by males aged between 16 and 25
and, most likely, from a fatherless family.
The report, compiled by Katindi Sivi
Njonjo for policy makers, is especially harsh on fathers who walk away from
their offspring, and indirectly indicts the man for a spike in the crime rate
in the country
Laid-back fathers
More than half of the inmates at the
Nairobi West Prison in 2009, for example, grew up without fathers, 10 per cent
had abusive fathers, and 12 per cent had laid-back fathers.
Within the same period, 78 per cent of
inmates at the Industrial Area Remand Prison grew up without fathers, eight per
cent had abusive fathers and six per cent had passive ones.
“The role of a father is particularly
important in determining the future wellbeing of a child,” says Njonjo, the
study author who also calls for a rethink of the increasingly acceptable
concept of single motherhood.
Citing experiences elsewhere, the
author says students attending schools populated by a high proportion of
children from single-parent homes are at risk of developing into delinquents.
Youth population, according to the last
national census, constitutes 35.39 per cent of the total population. Those aged
between zero and 14 years constitute 42.92 per cent, thus under 34s constitute
78.31 per cent of Kenya’s population.
In what may be of concern to religious
leaders, the profile indicates that the participation of the 7-19 year-olds in
religious activities decreases as they grow older, and that only those below 10
make a token offering at their places of worship.
About half of this age segment (7-19)
will spend their pocket monies on snacks and sweets and, as they grow older, on
airtime, cyber cafes, clothing, entertainment, alcohol, cigarettes, and drugs.
About 36 per cent of the older youths
take alcohol, while 26 per cent smoke tobacco. Smoking among students is most
prevalent in Nairobi and Central provinces, while among youths who are out of
school, the vice is most common in Eastern, Coast, and Rift Valley provinces,
in that order.
Alcohol
abuse is highest among students in Western and Nairobi provinces, while bhang
prevalence is highest in Coast and Nairobi.
Tessa Finlev is a research affiliate with