The Dilemma of Kenya's Youth Bulge

By Katindi Sivi-Njonjo

Kenya’s population has continued to grow exponentially and by 2009, the population size was slightly over seven fold the population in 1948 and over four fold that of 1962. Whereas the bulk of this population (43%) is made up of children aged 0 and 14, the number of 15 – 34 year olds has been increasing and is expected to form the bulk of the population in the next 10 – 20 years. This shift has been occurring due to the changing fertility patterns, mainly the fact that many women are giving birth later, spacing their children more or giving birth to fewer children. It has also been brought about by lowering mortality rates.

 

The first challenge posed by this phenomenon is the fact that 15 to 34 year old women are at the peak of their reproductive age. This group is currently responsible for 80% of the 1 million Kenyans born every year. The reproductive decisions that this age group makes, now that they have earlier sexual relations (by age 15, 11% are sexually active, 47% by age 18 and 95% by age 24) and the fact that 36% of girls are already mothers by the age of 19, will determine their lifetime fertility rates and, subsequently, rate of population growth. The United Nations projects that Kenya’s population will reach 46 million by 2015, 57 million by 2025, and 85 million by 2050. Kenya needs to determine if it can sustain this relatively high population growth. It also need to determine if it can bear the high cost of health care likely to be posed in the future as a result of 15-24 year olds who are increasingly indulging in risky sexual escapades thus a high HIV/AIDs and STI infection rate.

 

An increasing number of 15-34 year olds will bring with it a second challenge, that of an increased rate of rural to urban migration beyond the current 4% urban annual growth rate. This is due to the fact that 43% of the migrants come as young adults (15-34) to look for employment. This migration is dominated by only two centers (Nairobi and Mombasa) and development transformations necessary to support this growth and enhance the quality of urban life is not occurring at the same rate. We are therefore likely to witness a faster increase of informal settlements and the challenges that come with slum dwelling and overcrowding, unless we anticipate these trends and proactively put in place responsive urban management policies.

 

Between 1970 and 1999, 80% of civil conflicts occurred in countries where 60% of the population or more were under the age of thirty. In countries where youth make up to 35 percent of the total adult population, the risk of conflict increases by 150 percent. A third challenge brought about by a demographic structure like ours is a high probability of civil conflict especially because the youth are relatively well educated and unemployed in an underdeveloped country. Where these numbers have been managed creatively, they have presented ‘a window of opportunity’ to reduce dependency and poverty due to the increased ratio of the working age population. Adequately investing in the enrollment and completion rates of young people in secondary school, tertiary and university as well as improving quality and relevance of education to adequately prepare student sfor work and life worked the magic in Korea in the 70’s.

 

A fourth challenge is the continued demand for employment. currently, out of the unemployed working age population, 72% are under the age of 30 and 51% are under the age of 24. Female unemployment rate stands at 27% against 22 % among males. Similarly unemployment among the urban youth stands at 39% against rural 19% notwithstanding the fact that nearly 500,000 young people enter the job market annually. Continued exclusion of youth from a productive role in the economy will inevitably exacerbate crime, drug abuse, vandalism, religious fanaticism and escalate the vicious cycle of poverty if no holistic approach is initiated to alter the employment challenges facing the youth.

 

This article was first published in the East African on 3rd January 2011 and can be accessed from the following link: http://allafrica.com/stories/201101040699.html